Advanced Topics in Finance
Dear All, Welcome to the web page of the course.
1. I am sorry for using English, but I do not even have Cyrillic keyboard.
While I will be happy to chat with you in Russian outside the class, I suggest
that all "official" communications should happen in English.
2. The course is heavily case based and require a lot of homework.
It can be
done in groups of two or three (but you can do it also alone). U should
do the cases individually. More on course policies below
3. Grades: Based on cases and class participation. No final exam...
4. Mandatory readings is marked with
X. The rest is going to
be covered in class. Please note: some of those papers are quite involved. But
what I want from you is to understand the issues and not the econometric
nitti-gritti.
Syllabus is HERE (as HTM) (as
PDF)
How to reach me:
- My office will be at NES. The phone no will be posted here
before first class.
- My default office hours will be 1 hour before class . I am ready to meet you in person if necessary
outside of those hours. Please make
an appointment.
- My email is andrei.simonov(AT)hhs.se
- my Skype is
- my ICQ
Strategic Asset Allocation (classes 1-2)
What performance should we expect from major markets
over the next twenty years?Can we gain anything by international
diversification? How to build workable portfolio in practice?
- Introductions, Course Outline, Requirements, Resources
- Utility function; choice under uncertainty
- Representation of risk by variance
- Risk tolerance and asset allocation
- Portfolio optimization
- Domestic diversification
- Index funds
- International Diversification
- Pitfalls in Portfolio constructions
Slides
Readings:
- XJeremy J.
Siegel, "Stocks and Bonds since 1802," chapter 1 in Stocks for the Long
Run : The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term
Investment Strategies, McGraw-Hill, pp. 3-24. (see my.nes)
- Edward M.
Kerschner,
"Does
Asset Allocation Matters anymore?" Paine Webber, Aug. 20, 2000.
- XStefano Cavaglia,
"The increasing importance of industry factors," Financial Analysts
Journal, Charlottesville; Sep/Oct 2000; Vol. 56, Iss. 5; pg. 41, 14 pgs
- Jeff Diermeier; Bruno Solnik, "Global pricing of equity," Financial
Analysts Journal; Charlottesville; Jul/Aug 2001
- John Y. Campbell, Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel, Yexiao Xu, "Have
Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of
Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, 2001
.
- XBrad
Barber and Terrance Odean, "The Courage of Misguided Convictions,"
Financial Analysts Journal, November/December 1999, 41-55.
- Philippe Jorion,
"Portfolio Optimization in Practice," Financial Analysts Journal,
Charlottesville; Jan/Feb 1992; Vol. 48, Iss. 1; pages 68-75.
- XEdward M. Kerschner,
"What is S&P 500?"
I put here couple of examples of portfolio
optimization (without endorsing any of those). More good examples can be found
via Google.
Will Sharpe optimizer
Example of Solver
Portfolio Optimizer by Craig Holden
CLASS 3
Ontario Teachers'case is due.
Questions are there.
Of interest:
- OTPP web site
- Buy-outs in Canada: Pension funds circle a national treasure DIY
The Economist, Apr 19th 2007
Classes 4-5
Risk Premium and Asset Pricing Models
- State of asset pricing theory (CAPM, APT,
international asset pricing models)
- Identifying factors
- Factors vs. attributes
- What are equilibrium Risk Premia?
- Black-Litterman Approach: Beyond Equilibrium
Slides
Readings:
- Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, 1992, "The
Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns" Journal of Finance 47,
427-465.
.
- XEugene
F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, 1993, "Common Risk Factors in the Returns on
Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3-56.
- Campbell R. Harvey, "Conditioning Variables and the
Cross-Section of Stock Returns," with Wayne Ferson, Journal of Finance
1999, 54 1325-1360. (P57)
- Kent
Daniel and Sheridan Titman, 1997, "Evidence on the Characteristics of
Cross-Sectional Variation in Stock Returns" Journal of Finance 52,
1-33.
- Nai-Fu Chen, Richard Roll, Stephen A. Ross, 1986, "Economic Forces and
the Stock Market,", The Journal of Business, Vol. 59, No. 3. (Jul.,
1986), pp. 383-403.
- Barr Rosenberg, Walt McKibben, 1973, "The Prediction of Systematic and
Specific Risk in Common Stocks," JFQA, vol8(2), pp. 317-333
- XRajnish
Mehra.
The equity premium: Why is it a puzzle? Financial Analysts Journal.
Charlottesville: Jan/Feb 2003. Vol. 59, Iss. 1; p. 54 (16 pages)
- William N.
Goetzmann and Philippe Jorion, A Century of Global Stock
Markets,
Journal of Finance 1999
-
"Great
Expectations", The Economist, Jan 31st, 2002 .
- Peter Coy,
"Economics:
How Risky Is the Risk Premium?" Business Week, Dec. 25, 2000.
- XRobert Litterman and Kurt Winkelmann, Goldman Sachs, January 1998,
Estimating Covariance Matrices.
- XAndrew Bevan and Kurt Winkelmann, Goldman Sachs, June 1998, Using the
Black-Litterman Global Asset Allocation Model: Three Years of Practical
Experience.
- XG. Le and Robert Litterman, Goldman Sachs, December 1999, The Intuition
Behind the Black-Litterman Model Portfolios.
Class 6
DFA case is due.
Questions are here.
Class 7
Tactical Asset Allocation IExpected returns
- Mean-variance perspective on TAA
- Are expected returns predictable?
- US and International evidence.
- Statistical and econometric issues
Slides
Readings
- XCampbell
R. Harvey and Wayne Ferson, "Sources of Predictability in Portfolio
Returns," Financial Analysts Journal May/June (1991): 49-56.
- XCampbell
R. Harvey and Wayne Ferson, "The Risk and Predictability of International
Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies 6 (1993) 527- 566.
- XArturo Estrella
and Mary R. Trubin, "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical
Issues", Current Issues in Economics and Finance, NY Fed, 12(2006).
- Dumas B. and B. Solnik, 1995, ''The world price of foreign exchange
risk'', Journal of Finance, 50, 445-479..
- Campbell R. Harvey, "Predictable Risk and Returns in
Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies (1995): 773-816.
-
Economics focus: The long and the short of it, Economist, Jan 7, 2006
- EXTRA:
Evelina M. Tainer, "Using Economic Indicators to improve investment
analysis." John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1998 (Second Edition)
- EXTRA Harvey Cox,
"The Market
as God", The Atlantic Monthly, March 1999. I do not agree with
this paper, but it does make a valid point (markets are not always right)
and argue this point well.
Class 8 Tactical Asset Allocation 2
Comovement, Volatility, Skewness
We will finish with TAA 1 and do TAA2.
Topics:
- Econometric techniques used for modeling
volatilities and correlations.
- Statistical properties of volatility
- Models of conditional volatility: ARCH and GARCH
models
- Other forecasting methods: chaos, genetic
algorithms, neural nets, etc.( I am quite pessimistic re. those, but so many
people are using them...)
- Role of Uncertainty
- Skewness
Slides
Readings:
- XCampbell
R. Harvey, "Forecasting International Equity Correlations," with Claude Erb
and Tadas Viskanta, Financial Analysts Journal (1994):
November/December 32-45.
- Campbell R. Harvey, "Predictable Risk and Returns in
Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies (1995): 773-816.
- Handouts
- Campbell R. Harvey,"Autoregressive Conditional
Skewness," with Akhtar Siddique, Journal of Financial and Quantitative
Analysis 1999
-
Joseph
Chen , Harrison G. Hong and Jeremy C. Stein," Forecasting Crashes: Trading
Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices", MIT Working
paper.
-
Skewness Movie
-
Example of GARCH
Class 9
Fast Forward case
Class 10
We will
also start new topic:
EMH & Mechanics and Pitfalls of Information Processing
- Information in financial markets.
- Analysts' recommendations: are they worth anything?
- Market reaction on analyst recommendation.
Slides
Readings:
- handouts.
- XAndrei
Shleifer,
Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance, Oxford
University Press, 2000.(chapter 1)
- XLeslie Boni and
Kent Womack,
"Wall Streets' credibility problem: Misaligned Incentives and Dubious
Fixes?" to be published in the Brookings-Wharton Papers in Financial
Services, 2002.
-
Kent L. Womack, "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment
Value?" Journal of Finance, vol. 51, pp137-167.
-
Laurie Krigman Wayne H. Shaw, and Kent L. Womack, "The Persistence of IPO
Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping, " Journal of Finance,
vol. 54, pp1015-1044.
(alternative link)
Classes 11-12: Hedge funds and market neutral investments
Abbot Lab and Alza case is due.
Questions are here. We will
also consider other hedge funds strategies
Classes 13-14
Investor Sentiment and Risks
Royal-Dutch Case is DUE!
Questions are here
- Prospect Theory
- Overconfidence
- Framing
- Investor Sentiment
- Implications for Investment Industry
Slides
- XBrad
Barber and Terrance Odean, "The Courage of Misguided Convictions,"
Financial Analysts Journal, November/December 1999, 41-55.
.
- Robert J. Shiller, "Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial
System," in
Handbook of Macroeconomics (John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford,
editors)
- William Goetzmann, Massimo Massa and Geert Rouwenhorst,
Behavioral
Factors in Mutual Fund Flows Yale University Working Paper, 2000.
- Mark Hulbert, "How Dot-Com Makes a Company Smell Sweet",
NY Times, Aug. 15, 1999
- EXTRAAndrei Shleifer,
Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance, Oxford
University Press, 2000.
Course Policies:
I strive to treat students with dignity and fairness. I try to be sensitive
to the diversity (including diversity of opinions) that exists within the
student body.
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Cheating:
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- For group work: All groups should work
independently. You may collaborate with members of your group, but may not
discuss any aspect of project or case with other groups. Sharing
information or ideas between groups will be considered cheating and
discovered violators will be subject to severe sanctions.
-
- For exams and individual assignments: All individuals should work
independently. The problem set or examination with the traces of other
persons' works or traces of last year solutions sheets will be deemed as
unacceptable and discarded. Violators will be subject to severe sanctions.
Unfortunately, in the case of exams and problem sets it is impossible to
distinguish between the cheater and the person who provide his or her
work to cheaters. Thus, all parties involved will be treated equally
severe.
Here is how it happens....
One more...
And
the last one.
Here
student insists that he is innocent of cheating.
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Readings:
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Readings should be done in advance of class in which
material will be discussed. The outline below will advise of the relevant
topic of discussion. The required readings are marked with (X).
Students can access supplemental readings through me
directly.
Please note: I do not require you to understand any small detail of
econometric technique, but one should be able to extract and digest the main
idea of the paper.
This is, of course, in addition to the important reading of the Wall
Street Journal. Some of the
classes require a lot of reading, please plan ahead!
I am also putting some "extra" readings on the list
(marked EXTRA). Those readings
are for your enjoyment. They are not part of the package
(mostly). However, if possible, I will provide hyperlink for PDF file.
You should read them if you feel that the
course is not challenging enough for you.
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Attendance:
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Preparation and discussion of cases are integral part of this course. This
means that students have to attend case discussions. I would appreciate name
tags.
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Written Reports:
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Each student will prepare a
written report on the case. This will
involve answers to the series of questions discussed above. Each report should be typed, double-spaced and generally no
more than N pages in length, not including tables and graphs (normally N=7,
precise number will be specified for each case/assignment). The report
will be graded on the basis of the quality of the research, as well as of
the professional presentation (neatness, clarity of exposition, etc.). I
would encourage you to submit this report via Email in Word with appended
Excel graphs/charts in order to save paper. I will strive to give you
feedback in the form of a memo or comments on hard copy of your reports,
also via E-mail, which will record your grade.
What is good case analysis (for me, anyway). May be, the best
way to describe it is to describe what case is NOT. Case analysis is NOT the
copying exercise from a book into MS Word. It is not exercise in history of
Finance (If you are spending precious space to inform me that Markowitz got
Nobel Prize, you deserve to be punished). Case report is similar with
consulting recommendations. As such, you require to take a position and
argue this position well. Your conclusions should be supported by firm
(i.e., analytical) arguments. Possible criticizm should be explicitly
addressed. Look at attachments for the case. Normally they contain wealth of
analytical information to look through. In many cases you have more info
than you need. Try to understand what is important and what is not. It is
important part of case challenge. Normally I give you the list of questions
that are designed to guide you through analysis. I am not insisting that you
have to follow my template. But all relevant issues have to be
covered. You are welcome to go to the web and to find more relevant
information. However, do not try to kill me with your intellect. It is more
important for me (and your grade) that you understand what you wrote than that
you demonstrate that you can use google. Finally, try to be
brief. On average, each case requires from 1 to 2 days of work.
Late assignments cannot be accepted for credit except for the most
serious reasons. As such I consider serious family matters, serious health
problems (certified!), etc. In such cases make-up options will be discussed. For anything else (late party, job interview, even
the project for other course) here is my response: .
NB:
As a result of my previous experience: All written reports should be
1. Double-spaced with decent margins.
2. Typed using 12pt font.
3. Title page should contain your names and student id's.
4. Within predefined length limits. I reserve the right to lower the grade
if the length of your report sufficienty exceeds the limit (although I am not
going to punish you for one or two pages over the limit or so)
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Mobile Phones:
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They should be switched off during the class. I am the only guy who can
answer the phone call in my classroom.
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Class participation:
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Part of the grade is coming from class participation. Please note
that those are normally "bonus points" and there is no entitlement
for those points. I will not accept any complaints of the type "can you
give me more points for my class participation?"
To get those one should actively participate in case discussions and group
presentations. I would encourage students to have their name tags on during
case discussions.
Note that visits during my office hours are NOT counted towards class
participation grade (either explicitly or implicitly).
The grade will be based on five cases with equal weight (total
of 90%) plus 10% for class participation. Generally, I
try to give the cases back during next class.
Mapping to letter grades: FAIL (F, 2): >50%, PASS(C, 3,
TROIBAN): 50-69.99%, GOOD(B, 4): 70%-89.99%, EXCELLENT (A, 5): >90%
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Complaints re. grading:
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All problems re. case/assignment grading should be settled within 5 days
after the grade was initially announced.
Late complaints cannot be accepted for credit except for the most
serious reasons. As such I consider serious family matters, serious health
problems (certified!), etc. For anything else (late party, job interview, even
the project for other course) here is my response:
.
I am ready to entertain your complaint if you can submit me short memo that
describes EXACTLY what you think was the problem with the grading.
Please note that the appeal is not a free option. On appeal your grade can
go up or down... |
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